Market Sentiment Improved, SHFE Copper Temporarily Stabilized [SHFE Market Closing Review on April 1]

SHFE copper opened lower in the morning, but the intraday market continued to recover, turning positive in the afternoon and closing up 0.14%. Market sentiment generally improved, and US copper also began to stabilize, with SHFE copper facing relatively small downward pressure.

Overnight, US copper showed signs of stabilization, coupled with a warm atmosphere in the futures market during the day, SHFE copper also stopped falling. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of US tariff policies and changes in market sentiment. At the beginning of the month, the US "reciprocal tariffs" were gradually implemented, reducing uncertainty. US stocks may drive market sentiment to warm up, but the market also needs to gradually digest the distorted price spread between US copper and LME copper. Additionally, attention should be paid to whether the US stagflation expectations continue to play out.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of Chile showed that Chile's copper production in February 2025 decreased by 5.4% YoY to 397,396 mt, with a significant pullback MoM, which may be related to the large-scale power outage in Chile in February. Domestically, spot copper concentrate TCs continued to decline, and ore supply tightness has not eased. It is still necessary to pay attention to the operation of smelters during the maintenance season. Recently, arrivals in Guangdong have increased, while downstream demand is limited by high prices. Domestic refined copper social inventory showed a rebound trend, and it is still necessary to pay attention to changes in social inventory and demand performance under high prices. SDIC Futures stated that the price difference between primary metal and scrap is tight, and the recent increase in social inventory is related to the shift in SHFE-Guangdong logistics to Guangdong warehousing.